Analyst: DraftKings May Have Q1 Tailwinds But 2026 Guidance Reachable

A pair of upsets may have provided some relief for DraftKings Analyst lifts Q1 EBITDA estimate to $154 million Says company’s full-year guidance is attainable

The NCAA’s March Madness Tournament is likely to have a neutral impact on DraftKings’ (NASDAQ: DKNG) first-quarter results, Citizens Equity Research (CER) analyst Jordan Bender has claimed. DraftKings Q1 results may be solid with full-year estimates in reach. (Image: Getty) In a note to clients, Bender points out that March Madness again brought a limited number of upsets, though Florida’s early exit and Duke losing at the buzzer in the Elite Eight may provide some relief for DraftKings results. Regardless of sport, favorites consistently winning is a drag for sportsbook operators because the public typically backs “chalk.” Bender encourages investors to focus more on DraftKings’ earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) over handle growth or lack thereof. March Madness (in 1Q) appeared to be a neutral event from a game outcome perspective, indicating overall gaming margins could be a slight tailwind for the quarter,” says the analyst. “We revise our 1Q26 EBITDA estimate to $154 million after adjusting for Arkansas ($20 million), and still see full-year EBITDA guidance as achievable exiting the first quarter.” DraftKings and rival FanDuel recently launched online sports betting in Arkansas, but were live in the state for only a small portion of the first quarter. DraftKings Could See Q2 Stability Reflecting on DraftKings’ 2026 EBITDA guidance of $700 million to $900 million, which the operator issued in February, Bender asserts that this now looks achievable when accounting for the effects of March Madness and adjustments for Arkansas-related spending.

The analyst also points out that the second quarter is historically a period of stability for sportsbook operators and one that brings the highest parlay margins relative to other quarters. He adds DraftKings performed s